Machinery industry boom this year, quickly picked up.
Major sub-sectors in the machinery, engineering machinery, railway equipment, machine tools and other sub-sectors from January to October this year, the sales growth of 40% or more, to maintain a high degree of economy.cast bronze Heavy machinery, petrochemical equipment industries increased on the list, but the growth rate is also 20%.
Industrial upgrading and transformation is the development of the industry trends. Construction machinery globally competitive industry segments,bronze bushing there is still much room for development. Strategy for emerging industries will accelerate the pace of industry transformation and upgrading of heavy machinery and other industries in transition to new energy sources.dry bushing High-end CNC machine tools, marine engineering and other high-end equipment manufacturing industry in the initial stage, but to determine the long-term growth. Machinery industry from labor-intensive to capital-and technology-intensive, plain bearing from manufacturing to service transformation, the product is in transition from low to high-end development of the industry trends.
Steel prices remained stable overall, help to enhance the profitability of the industry. Steel prices this year, sleeve bushing showing a slight upward trend year on year, while the overall steady state. As still excess production capacity steel industry,DU bushing downstream demand remained stable, steel prices unlikely to rise sharply. Based on historical experience in steel prices remained stable with slight increases in the background, help to improve the machinery industry's profitability.
The current valuation of the machinery industry as a whole is in the A-share market in the mid to upper position. bushing Industry boom of the rise and high-end equipment manufacturing as a strategy to promote new industries to enhance the valuation industry. Major sub-sectors in the machinery, engineering machinery industry is relatively low valuation, bushing followed by heavy machinery, machine tools, coal and machinery. Railway equipment, spare parts industry, higher than the valuation of CSR (601 766),Mould guide plate CNR (601299), and other automobile companies. Aerospace, nuclear power equipment, higher price-earnings ratio, the industry's high growth prospects in the valuation has been that it represents. Representative of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry, industrial upgrading and the development direction, but we also note that the majority of strategic industry in the emerging industries based on the development of traditional industries.
Strategy, choose from the industry point of view, one concerned about the construction machinery industry with a global competitive advantage, the second is concerned with the market demand for policies to promote growth of new energy equipment, marine engineering, high-end smart equipment, and other emerging industries. From a valuation perspective, the concern about the relatively low price-earnings ratio of Sany Heavy Industry (600031),plasic bushing Liugong (000528), Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169), CIMC (000039), China South Locomotive and so on.
Construction Machinery: room to grow still larger.
Based on this year's high base, is expected industry sales growth in 2011 will show the trend of previous low to high, the annual industry sales growth of 15% -20%, the industry leader's growth rate will be higher than the industry average.
According to leading companies within the industry sales forecast for 2011 is expected industry sales growth in 2011 expected to be around 20% profit growth of 20% -30% of industry profits faster than revenue growth, the main leader the company's sales revenue growth projections of 20% or more.
In the main sub-sectors, excavators and cranes is expected to maintain rapid growth, the growth rate of concrete machinery and relatively low loaders, forklifts and the stability of the industry to maintain a high growth rate. XCMG is expected, in conjunction, Liugong, Hill pushed the sale of such revenue growth in 2011 is 20% -30%, Sany Heavy Industry is expected to more than 50% growth rate.
"Twelve Five-Year" period, will remain in the rapid growth of construction machinery. Based on the engineering machinery industry, "second Five-Year" plan, the next five years the industry average growth rate projected at 17%, industry is still in rapid growth stage. Downward trend in fixed-asset investment growth and real estate regulation and other factors, the market is worried about growth prospects for the industry a major factor. However, we believe that advantages of construction machinery manufacturing industry as the representative of China, the industry is still much room for growth. Urbanization process, product line extensions and increased demand in overseas markets such as the three major driving force is the source of industry growth.
In recent years, industry leading companies through access to other market segments, extending product lines, adding new growth point. Mutual penetration of different industry segments, both the intensified competition in the industry, but also the advantages businesses can gain more market share. Comprehensive competitive industry leading companies will win out, to maximize the rapid growth of the industry to share the benefits. On the export side, in 2010, Europe and other major economies, the relatively slow recovery process, the international construction machinery market is still in recovery, the international market of construction machinery is expected to moderate recovery next year, to a strong recovery is expected after 2012.
High-end CNC machine tools in the future for the better.
1-10 months this year, the cumulative growth rate of metal-cutting machine tool production was 32.59%, CNC metal cutting machine tools in the cumulative production growth rate is as high as 66.85%. Automotive industry, engineering machinery and other downstream industries boom driven high demand for the machine tool industry. Machine all varieties of a structural differentiation of growth characteristics. Machining centers, lathes and other fast-growing demand for products, while the decline in demand for heavy-duty machine tools.
Prospects for high-end CNC machine tools from import substitution and market demand growth. China's imports of machine tools in machining centers, grinding machines, turning centers and other high-end machine products, these three products together accounted for 66.2% of the proportion of imports. At present, China imports most of high-end CNC machine tools rely on the situation has not yet broken, and high-end CNC machine tools accounted for about 85% of domestic market share.
CNC machine tool production in China maintained a rapid growth trend, CNC machine tools in the metal increased year by year the proportion of the total. Rate of NC machine tools to improve year by year, the output from the NC rate increase of 9.12% in 2001 to 19.79% in 2008, while the output value of NC rate increased from 37.8% to 48.6%.
Upgrading of industrial structure in China and the escalating cost of labor background, later stages of industrialization, investment in machinery and equipment increased the proportion of the machine instead of artificial and other factors, will increase the demand for machine tools and other mechanical equipment, machine tool demand in China's industrialization process increase and product quality improvement is the development of the machine tool industry's long-term trend.
Automobiles, construction machinery and other industries in 2010 on a high base, growth will slow in 2011, so that the whole machine tool industry growth rate decreased, but the industry will continue to rise in the economic cycle operation. National Science and Technology major projects and downstream industrial upgrading will drive the machine tool industry to upgrade the product structure, high-end CNC machine tools in the growth rate will be higher than the industry average growth rate, can focus on products with strong R & D capacity and structural advantages of the company.
Great potential of marine engineering equipment.
Offshore oil development to promote the marine engineering industry. International marine engineering equipment market in demand of about 40 billion to 50 billion U.S. dollars, China is still in the preliminary stages of the development of marine engineering, accounting for about 10% of global market share. "Twelve Five" period will focus on the development of offshore drilling platforms, new marine engineering equipment, deep water positioning systems and other equipment to form a new industry of marine engineering equipment.
"Eleventh Five-Year" period, China's offshore oil and gas resources for development investment will reach 120 billion yuan. "Twelfth Five-Year" period, China should increase 50 million tons of offshore oil production, marine equipment, will invest 250 billion plan -3000 million. Marine engineering equipment industry's overall goal is to reach 1,000 billion yuan in output value, accounting for the international market share of 20%. While the formation of four years of the industrial output value of more than 200 billion bases in 5-6 more than 15 billion yuan annual output value of the general contractor.
Heavy Machinery: new opportunities in transition.
Heavy machinery production cycle is longer, the steel industry by the financial crisis and the impact of overcapacity in China this year of a weight (601 106), two heavy equipment (601,268) in revenue and net profit both declined. Metallurgical equipment from the traditional industries in transition to new energy sources, the main development direction of the industry, nuclear power, the rapid development of new industries such as heavy machinery companies will provide opportunities for successful transformation.
Heavy machinery industry, major listed companies in China a heavy, heavy equipment, Taiyuan Heavy Industry and other companies. China, a heavy, heavy equipment mainly for the domestic nuclear power production of casting and forging enterprises in order to protect the next hand the performance of rapid growth. Taiyuan Heavy Industry to the new energy, high-speed rail and other emerging markets in transition has been noticed.
Industry restructuring worth the wait, is expected to dip in 2011 growth will rebound in the industry. Nuclear power industry and other emerging markets to provide new growth. Orders in hand from the point of view, a weight of China's nuclear power production value will significantly increase the effect of market transformation will be reflected next year. In traditional business, starting in 2010, with the economic recovery, downstream petrochemical equipment, metallurgical both restorative growth. Expected in 2011 to the good macro-economic background, heavy machinery downstream demand will pick up.
Basic components: policy support will increase.
1-10 months this year, rolling, metal fasteners were as high as the cumulative growth rate of 69.5%, 40.1%, gear industry's growth rate is relatively low, only 17.1%. High-speed railway, new energy, aerospace and other emerging rapid development of downstream industries will drive the growth of related parts and components industry, in machine parts industry, competitive products to meet market demand will follow the common development of new industries downstream.
In recent years, with the rapid development of equipment manufacturing industry, basic parts of China in recent years more than 30% compound growth rate. However, due to the long-term basic parts are not taken seriously, the overall low level of development, aviation, high-speed railway, automobile, nuclear power, engineering machinery, numerical control machine tools and other key parts of the industry based on high value-added items need to rely on imports, therefore, with the relevant policies support efforts to increase the next machine components industry, industrial upgrading and high-end products is still huge potential for import substitution.