Japan nuclear accident for countries to re-examine nuclear power development, including whether to continue the development of nuclear power, whether to adjust the scale of nuclear power. Industry analysts believe that nuclear power will directly affect changes in the development of uranium resources in the upstream market structure. In the construction of nuclear power as the world's largest country, China's development of nuclear power and uranium resources in the role of the market attracted wide attention.
"World uranium prices and supply and demand patterns are generated due to fluctuations in Fukushima nuclear accident?",DU bushing "How to make natural uranium prices remain at reasonable levels?", "Uranium Resources and trends of the future direction of the market are what?", "Future years, China will play in the world market,Mould guide plate what role uranium resources? "This is the Fukushima nuclear accident, many people are concerned about the topic. Reporters in the recently held Seventh International Conference on Nuclear Energy in China to find the relevant answers.
Accidents caused by the inevitable fluctuations
Fukushima nuclear accident, many countries suspended or re-examine the development of nuclear power, natural uranium in the international markets "volatility."
According to industry analysis of data provided by the international spot price of natural uranium by the end of February of this year's $ 69.75 / pound fell to 4 at the end of 55 U.S. dollars / lb, or 15 U.S. dollars / lb, plasic bushing the major decline occurred in the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant Accident after.
According to the statistics of March this year, the world's uranium resource exploration and development in the listed company's stock changes are: the average fell 24.5%, and some uranium development company franchise fell even more serious cases; and not to uranium resource development as the core business of integrated companies fell relatively small proportion.
"Fukushima nuclear accident serve as a warning of long-term development of nuclear power and promote the role of the state is committed to long-term development of nuclear energy will be more emphasis on nuclear safety and security planning; more attention to advanced nuclear technology, particularly the technical protection of nuclear safety, Select three generations and more advanced countries in nuclear power reactor types will be the trend of development; further strengthen the nuclear power plant construction and operation of nuclear power safety oversight, increase centralized control efforts; nuclear emergency response system to strengthen the construction and improvement, and constantly develop and improve nuclear emergency response technology. "uranium industry in the Guangdong Nuclear Power Company Limited (hereinafter referred to as" wide uranium "), chairman Zhou Zhenxing," said incidents of human reflection and analysis should take some time, so demand for natural uranium will be followed by certain scale extent. "
Nuclear industry, global markets and advisory services provider Ux Consulting Company (hereinafter referred to as "Ux") of the analysis of data, Fukushima before and after the accident, the world's installed nuclear power capacity in 2020, 8% of the projected gap exists, it is this the incident really cut the size of the world's development of nuclear power.
The same patterns and trends in supply and demand
"But the Fukushima nuclear accident would not change the world the basic pattern of demand for natural uranium." Zhou Zhenxing said.
It is understood that Japan's existing 55 nuclear reactors in commercial operation, the annual consumption of 8,200 tons of uranium, accounting for about 12% of global demand -13%. If the Japanese authorities shut down because of the long-term nuclear crisis Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant six reactors, about reducing demand for less than 1,000 tons of uranium, together with Germany and other countries even if the proposed closure of the nuclear power plant, the total demand on the global impact of natural uranium is less than 5%. The data show that in 2011 the annual global demand for nuclear power of uranium is about 71,225 tons.
Apart from the above short-term assessment, Zhou Zhenxing that great attention and a substantial increase in nuclear power plants under the premise of safety, nuclear energy development trends will not change, so the world's natural uranium supply and demand trends and patterns of the total will be no major changes. He gives reasons include: the world in the operation and construction of nuclear power in the demand for natural uranium will not change significantly, the emerging nuclear power development trend of nuclear power will not change, the future supply and demand gap (including the gradual reduction of secondary uranium sources ) to promote natural uranium production further.
According to IEAE (International Atomic Energy Agency) report, the global nuclear power in the operation of 443 reactors (including the Fukushima nuclear power plant No. 6 units), 75% of the reactor operating time by more than 20 years, 25% of the reactor operation for more than 30 years. Calculated in accordance with the cycle of nuclear power plant operations, nuclear power plants in operation have not reached retirement age. "So for a long time, the reactor in operation on the demand for natural uranium is still rigid." Zhou Zhenxing said, "In addition, nuclear power reactors under construction worldwide scale, the number has not changed. The world is built in 2011 65 reactors mainly in China, Russia, India and South Korea. "
To the production of natural uranium, Zhou Zhenxing that emerging nuclear powers will not change the momentum of development and will become the main force of natural uranium demand. However, from 2010 to 2020, the world's natural uranium production and demand will exist between the gap, and the secondary uranium source is also reduced, so the time to enhance production of natural uranium is necessary. "Meanwhile, the world's consumption of low-cost uranium resources faster, and increase investment in exploration and development, the development trend of high-cost uranium resources has not changed."
"Appropriate exploration and development of uranium resources to stimulate investment in projects to stimulate the construction of uranium and production, is to meet the demand for natural uranium nuclear power an important way." Zhou Zhenxing said.
The price trend, Zhou Zhenxing that, according to the development of natural uranium and nuclear power plants to match the principles, the future price of natural uranium recovery and maintain a rational basis at a reasonable level, or 65-70 U.S. dollars / lb (URANIUM BY) up and down in favor of uranium supply of resources, protection. If we high, will increase the cost of nuclear fuel, resulting in nuclear power development is limited.
"Uranium prices from the current cost of analysis, the spot price is expected to keep bargaining, $ 70 will be a long-term contract price." Ux 乔纳森辛泽 Vice President, International Operations, said.
Drew attention to the role of China
It is learned that China has proven reserves of uranium resources, or inferred resources ranked tenth in the world, but the scale and pace of future development is in the world. "We certainly want to seek the protection of the supply of natural uranium, on the one hand in the international market purchases, which will account for a significant proportion, on the other hand to increase investment in domestic exploration and development efforts and investment." Zhou Zhenxing said.
"China will be the next decade, the absolute world uranium market and the price of the main persons." said.
Fukushima after the accident, Ux company the size of nuclear power in 2020 showed that the scale of China's nuclear power accounted for almost half of world growth, if the removal of China's nuclear power expansion, the next decade, growth in world nuclear power installed capacity of only 15%.
For China's nuclear fuel cycle, prediction, taking into account the rapid development of nuclear power, the current capacity of China's domestic nuclear fuel cycle can not meet the demand for fuel level may be difficult for another ten years.
It is reported that, Ux company attaches great importance to the importance of the Chinese market, has published a major report on the status of China's nuclear power and nuclear fuel market analysis data, can enhance the understanding of the Chinese market. The company conducted a summary of uranium contracts, agreements under both short-and long-term agreement, the spot market to make the analysis shows that from 2006 to 2010, a total procurement of 23 million pounds of uranium fuel, accounting for the global market, 12% of uranium sales. According to the company's estimate, China's demand for uranium resources, international market in 2008 the proportion accounted for 3% by 2020 the proportion will increase to 20%.
How to better ensure the supply of domestic uranium resources, Zhou Zhenxing recommends that the Government should increase its uranium exploration efforts to increase the basic exploration investment in the same time, the domestic commercial exploration have substantive input into the scale. In addition, to enhance production of uranium and nuclear power and the interaction between the major powers, a more stable and smooth supply and demand protection mechanisms and channels.
"Optimization of all aspects of nuclear fuel processing capacity allocation and layout to form a relatively fair market environment; strengthen the nuclear fuel processing and service providers with close cooperation between the owners of nuclear power. Give full play to IAEA, WNA and related organizations, and build more and more effective cooperation and exchange platform and improve its nuclear technology and security, efforts to develop advanced nuclear power technology to further reduce fuel consumption, save uranium resources. "Zhou Zhenxing said.
Nuclear fuel processing or adjustment
pointed out the nuclear fuel market to determine demand, most in need of accurate market signal that the price signals to stimulate the production of uranium, to ensure supply.
In addition, nuclear fuel processing, that is, uranium conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication, industry analysts said, or a gap, or have some adjustments.
It is understood that growth under the baseline scenario of nuclear power projections, the industry expects the global demand for enrichment services will be in the years between 2010-2030 the rate of 2.5% per year steady growth, demand growth will be the largest in East Asia. In 2020, there will be some shortage of supply of enriched uranium.
For the uranium conversion, industry analysis, based on baseline projections of nuclear power development in 2020 will maintain balance between supply and demand, market supply is almost no margin. After 2020, the supply will not meet demand. May make way for the supply and demand gap: enriched uranium tailings reduced the abundance, the use of nuclear power operator part of the strategic stocks held by the further expansion of existing facilities into the construction of new production capacity and conversion facilities. However, the conversion price of the interference by the secondary supply, lack of new construction, factory equipment aging, accidents, therefore vulnerable to future price impact of unexpected events, volatile.
Component manufacturing in the West component plant production capacity will reach 15,000 tons / year, Russia reached 3,000 tons / year, both productivity and more than 40% of total world demand. "You could say the current component manufacturers to meet the needs of long-term development of nuclear power. China in the fuel component, too, according to nuclear power development, the industrial structure based on some adjustments." Zhou Zhenxing introduced.